Work Package 4.4
This Work Package focuses on regional modelling of N2O and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in relation to options from RP2. The process model ‘InfoCrop’ of IARI will be compared with IPCC Tier 1 and 2 emission factor methods to assess the impact of agricultural N management on direct (N2O, CH4, CO2) and indirect GHG emissions (NH3, NO, O3) at regional and country scales under climate and N policy scenarios (WP1.2). Utilizing existing and new data (WP2.1, 2.2) we will deliver an improved calibrated model (InfoCrop_SA), linking N flows to crop outcomes to address climate resilience while including legumes (extending from rice, wheat & maize) and soil NO fluxes. The models will be used to disaggregate emission inventories to SA sub-regions, constrained by available observations from aircraft, towers and satellites. Workshops and training will be provided on inventory building, emission factor calculations and mitigation options in association with (WP2.1 and3.3).
Work package level Specific objectives
- To develop existing models to assess current and future impacts of GHG emissions on climate resilience and Nitrogen policy
- To assess the impact of agricultural N management on direct (N2O, CH4,) and indirect GHG emissions (NH3, NO, O3) at regional and country scales under climate and N policy scenarios using IPCC Tier 1,2,3 methods.
- To verify disaggregated emission inventories for SA sub-regions with atmospheric observations coupled to inverse modelling and existing/new N2O, CH4 CO2, NH3, NO, O3 flux data.
- To provide training and capacity building in greenhouse gas emission inventory calculations to underpin regional policy and mitigation
Work package level-specific questions or hypotheses
- Improved regional and country based agricultural greenhouse gas emissions will enable policymakers to implement effective mitigation options and thereby reduce climate change and improve air quality.
- To reduce eutrophication of nitrogen sensitive ecosystems, improve human and crop productivity it is important that greenhouse gas inventories calculate both direct (N2O, CH4 and CO2) and indirect (NH3, NO, O3) emissions.
- Capacity building in greenhouse gas inventory development and mitigation options will provide the experts needed to support and advice on policies for a green future.
- At a technical level, we assume that:
- All SANH countries can deliver Tier 1 IPCC annual emission inventories for the agriculture-related direct and indirect GHG (N2O, CH4, CO2, NO, NH3, O3).
- Internationally available datasets (i.e. FAO data providing crop types) can support regional disaggregation of direct and indirect GHG emission estimates using Tier 1 IPCC emission factors and Tier 3 multiple regression and process modelling for all SANH countries.
- Existing global data sets (i.e. N2O, NO and NH3), new local data from WP 2.1 & 2.2 and atmospheric concentration measurements are available to constrain the emission inventories.
- There will be enough interest from environmental government departments, students and scientists to attend training courses in GHG inventory building (Tier 1,2,3, WP 4.4) and Moodles (WP 3.3), to equip them with a better knowledge of the data needed to create improved GHG inventories and forecasting, and to disseminate this knowledge to scientists and policymakers in their countries.
- The tested models can be used to test policy scenarios (i.e.climate change and mitigation).
Work Package Leads:
- Skiba (CEH)
- Pathak (IARI)
- University of Edinburgh
- Rothamsted Research
- University of Faisalabad