Work Package 1.2
This WP will facilitate the development of clear visions by SACEP governments, by the co-design of future storylines and scenarios for SA (WP1.2), including technological options, equity, and food security/choice issues that interact with human and livestock health (drawing on RPs 2, 3 & 4). To ensure consistency, the activity will draw on and feed into the Global Nitrogen Scenarios work of INMS, including the establishment of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) focused on nitrogen. A specific hypothesis to be examined is that global exchange of aspirations will influence future nitrogen flow and impact trajectories, i.e. choices by European citizens will affect South Asian ambitions/ trajectories and vice versa. Exploration of this hypothesis will be aided by structured engagement with civil society, starting with the Nourish Scotland and SIT ‘Nitrogen Forums’.
Work package level Specific objectives:
Purpose: Define agreed scenarios for modelling and stakeholder engagement and for use throughout SANH (see figure below).
Develop from widely-agreed global scenarios (RCPs / SSPs / INMS Global N scenarios) – informed by SANH partners and adding detail for South Asia – consultative process.
Examine transboundary effects within South Asia – and across global regions
Make relevant to UN SDGs and other global agreements, and regional activities/agreements e.g. ASEAN and Asian Development Bank.
Not policy prescriptions nor policy frameworks – but can inform policy development.
Work package level-specific hypotheses
If nitrogen losses are halved, air, soil and water pollution will be greatly reduced thereby enhancing environmental sustainability and human wellbeing.
Reduction of N losses is compatible with global pathways towards sustainable futures e.g. Shared Socio-economic pathway 1 (SSP1).
Scenarios to reduce N losses in South Asia are compatible with global scenarios for N reduction e.g. INMS global N scenarios.
Work Package Leads:
- P.Smith (UoA)
- Patra (SACEP)
- University of Edinburgh
- Plymouth Marine Lab
- University of Aberdeen
- University of Perideniya
- University of Faisalabad
- Royal University of Bhutan
- Nourish Scotland